Growth plan for Lyka, 6 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
One number runs this plan: a target CAC of $23.52 on Lyka's Starter Box (small dog), listed at 49.00 AUD. Creators feed 12–20 new ads a week, losers die early, and 30% off the first box is the offer we test hardest.
- Target CAC
- $23.52
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
Hold $23.52 CAC while Lyka's 30% first-box offer does the pulling
The number is $23.52, the guard line on customer acquisition cost. It is 0.6 × $39.20, the ceiling that a $49 order at 40% margin with one repeat order can carry. Spend scales only while Lyka's blended CAC stays under it.
Protect
Target CAC: $23.52 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $49 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $39.20. Guard line = 0.6 × $39.20 = $23.52. Across the ranges: $25.73 to $66.15.
Three moves
- Kill any ad above $23.52 early, before it eats the test budget.
- Test the 30% first-box offer against health proof, one variable at a time.
- Move spend only to ads and landing pages that hold the guard line.
- of surveyed owners saw their dog's health improve (Lyka survey, May 2023)
- 96%
- Published
- off the first box, the offer every test runs against
- 30%
- Published
- whole food ingredients in Lyka's recipes, material for on-camera hooks
- 50+
- Published
02 Variety
Each ad carries one Lyka proof: the 96% survey or 14 days
Each concept has to carry one reason to try Lyka and one proof: the 96% owner survey, the 14-day promise, the over 50 whole food ingredients, or the 30% first-box offer. One variable per test, so we know which line moved the order.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| Vet nutritionist formulated | Life-Changing Dog Food | Real Ingredients, Vet Nutritionist Formulated | 3 |
| Gently cooked | Gently cooked to protect nutrients, so dogs get the benefits. | 3 |
| Easy to try | Your first delivery is just a taste test. Try, then decide. | 3 |
| Easy to change | Swap proteins, pause, skip, or cancel at any time. | 3 |
| Dogs love it | Fresh food smells and tastes like food, and dogs love that. | 3 |
| Offer on your first box | Get 30% off your first box | 2 |
| Dogs like Mia, Maya, Lilac | 1,078 other dogs like Mia | 1 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
Seven risks, three of them tied to Lyka's offer and claims
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The 49.00 AUD Starter Box (small dog) may not carry a CAC under $23.52 | Med | High | Me | Pause scale if first-order CAC stays above $39.20 for two weeks |
| Ad copy drifts past Lyka's own health wording, such as the 2 weeks promise | Med | High | Both | Every ad checked against the claims sheet; no unapproved health line goes live |
| The 30% offer is worded three ways: first box, first order, first two boxes | High | Med | Your team | One offer line agreed with your team before any landing page goes live |
| Subscription and second-box events are missing, so payback cannot be read | Med | High | Your team | Second-box events verified on test orders before spend passes $10,000 |
| Ten creators live by week six may slip | Med | Med | Me | At least 6 creators live by week four, or the onboarding pace changes |
| Ad fatigue: the 96% survey line repeats across creator videos | Med | Med | Me | Cut any ad above $23.52 CAC for three days running |
| Ads built on the 80% ultra-processed claim may draw pushback from rivals or regulators | Low | Med | Both | Each comparative line traced to Lyka's own wording before launch |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
The ceiling is $39.20; the guard line sits at $23.52
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $49 (range $49.00–$49.00) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $39.20 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $23.52 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $49 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $39.20. Guard line = 0.6 × $39.20 = $23.52. Across the ranges: $25.73 to $66.15.
Range across the assumptions: $26 to $66.
The $49 order, 40% margin and one repeat order are guesses until Lyka's numbers arrive. Week 1 replaces them with your real figures, and the $39.20 ceiling moves with them.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
Six weeks of tests, $24,000, before any scale-up
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $24 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $24 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $24 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $24 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $24 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $24 |
Week 1 and week 2 run 12 ads at $250 each, $3,000 a week. Weeks 3 and 4 run 12–20 ads at $4,000. Weeks 5 and 6 run 20 ads at $5,000. Tests total $24,000, all Proposed, and every ad answers to $23.52.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
More Lyka concepts, more winners: 20 concepts to 80
20 concepts yield 2 winners and $18,000 added a month; 80 concepts yield 8 and $72,000. Winner share and spend per winner are guesses. More concepts lower CAC only if winners hold under $23.52.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
The $100,000 budget follows winners, not the plan
- Paid tests: new Lyka hooks and offers
- $25,000
- 25%
- Scaling winners on Meta
- $50,000
- 50%
- Creator pay and product for Starter Box videos
- $15,000
- 15%
- Landing pages and reporting
- $10,000
- 10%
The $100,000 split is Proposed and shifts toward scaling once ads hold under $23.52; tests stay funded.
The math. 25% × $100,000 = $25,000; 50% × $100,000 = $50,000; 15% × $100,000 = $15,000; 10% × $100,000 = $10,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta first; other channels open only when Meta earns it
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta (Facebook and Instagram) | Week 1, with 12 ads live | Starter Box (small dog) unboxings fit the feed, and creator video is the raw material. |
| TikTok | When creator videos reach 42 a week | Creator footage made for Meta is reused without new shoots. |
| Google Search | When Meta winners hold under $23.52 CAC | Owners searching for fresh dog food are already in the category Lyka sells. |
| Email and SMS | When first-box buyers reach the second-box window | Lyka's offer of 30% off the first two boxes makes the second box the key order. |
| YouTube Shorts | After Meta and TikTok hold the guard line | Same creator footage, extra reach, tested only once the first two channels are stable. |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
Payback decides: the second box must repay the first
Payback is the real constraint. At a CAC of $10, the first order repays with $29.20 left. At $25 it takes repeat orders, leaving $14.20. At $45 and $55 it never repays: stop, −$5.80 and −$15.80. Lyka's 30% off two boxes makes the second box decisive.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $19.60, $39.20.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10 | $19.60 | $39.20 | $29.20 | First order |
| $25 | $19.60 | $39.20 | $14.20 | After repeat orders |
| $45 | $19.60 | $39.20 | −$5.80 | Never: stop |
| $55 | $19.60 | $39.20 | −$15.80 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $10: $39.20 − $10 = $29.20 left; pays back: First order; CAC $25: $39.20 − $25 = $14.20 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC $45: $39.20 − $45 = −$5.80 left; pays back: Never: stop; CAC $55: $39.20 − $55 = −$15.80 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
Scope: ads, creators and claims, not your site or tracking
Covers
- Meta ad testing, hook library and weekly creative reports
- Creator sourcing, briefs and pay for Starter Box videos
- Claims sheet built from Lyka's own wording
- Landing page briefs matched to each winning ad
Doesn’t
- Event tracking build: I spec it, your team ships it
- Your site, checkout and product pages
- Veterinary or nutrition claims beyond Lyka's own wording
- Pricing, recipes and shipping decisions
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | At least one ad holds CAC under $23.52 and first-box orders track cleanly | No ad under $39.20 after $6,000 of tests |
| Day 30 | Blended CAC under $39.20 and trending to $23.52, with 42 creator videos a week live | CAC above $39.20 after $14,000 of tests |
| Day 60 | At least four winners scaled and CAC at or under $23.52 on the added spend | CAC above $39.20 for two weeks running |
| Day 90 | Second-box payback visible at a CAC of $25 or lower, and spend scaling toward the $100,000 budget | Cohorts stop at first order with CAC above $39.20 |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| creative | Over 50 whole food ingredients to show on camera | Ad-ready video hooks | 1st |
| creators | Owner survey: 96% saw health improve, n=131 | A creator roster and pay terms | 2nd |
| claims sheet | Health wording: as little as 2 weeks | One approved list of lines | Week 1 |
| landing pages | Starter Box (small dog) at 49.00 AUD, was 70.00 | Pages matched to each ad concept | 2nd |
| reporting | A 30% first-box offer to track end to end | Subscription and second-box events | 1st |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 96% of surveyed owners saw their dog's health improve (Lyka survey, May 2023) | https://lyka.com.au/why-real-food | Fact |
| 30% off the first box, the offer every test runs against | https://lyka.com.au/blog | Fact |
| 50+ whole food ingredients in Lyka's recipes, material for on-camera hooks | https://lyka.com.au/our-food | Fact |
| Product prices $49.00–$49.00 | product prices in the site product data (1 product), read 2026-10-06 | Fact |
| $49 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $23.52 target CAC | 0.6 of the $39.20 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $39.20 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 25% / 50% / 15% / 10% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
Week 1: I write the claims sheet from Lyka's own wording, brief the first 2 creators on the Starter Box (small dog), and launch 12 ads at $250 each. You get a daily CAC read from day one.